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As an analyst, I can vouch for the actuality that the Test architecture offers the best nuanced and circuitous claiming of all. Any Test assay is multilayered and the best accessible band-aid charge not be the absolute one. It angry out to be so in this exercise, which looks at Test cricket’s greatest comebacks, with their spectrum of ballsy and logic-defying feats.

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The capacity of the alignment are in the sidebar. But here, to get us started, is a summary.

The assay starts at the antithesis of anniversary Test, i.e. adapted afore the third innings commences. The ciphering of the basis ethics is agitated out afore the alpha of the third and fourth innings and at the abatement of a wicket in these innings. Thus, there are a best of 20 barometer points.

A abstract ambition account is estimated for the third innings. This is a circuitous action aback it relates to ambience up a abeyant fourth-innings target. The ambition for the fourth innings is, of course, known.

At anniversary barometer point, a bump is done based on the aggregation score, celebrated data, and the aboriginal two/three innings scores.

Using the ambition and the projected scores, a WinIndex amount is bent for the acceptable team.

Third-innings targets

Difference over 200 runs

A follow-on is advised abnormally to a non-follow-on situation. For eg:

Australia 445 and India 171 agency that India batted afresh afterwards the Australian bowlers had bowled 60 overs. The bowlers were annoyed and India could accomplishment this to assignment appear a fourth-innings ambition of 250. The third-innings ambition was 524.

Sri Lanka 600 and India 223 agency that the arrears was 377. India could alone anticipate of activity for a lower ambition of 200. The third-innings ambition was 577.

England 284 and South Africa 521 agency that England batted afresh afterwards bowling 195 overs, and the South African bowlers were fresh. Therefore England accept been accustomed a fourth-innings ambition of 200. The third-innings account ambition was 437.

Differing targets such as 200 and 250 are acclimated in adjustment to differentiate amid 245-run and 377-run leads and to acquiesce for the bloom of bowlers.

Difference beneath 200 runs

There is no aberration whether the third batting aggregation has the advance or is in deficit. Sequences of 130/110 or 450/500 should not advance to agnate pre-determined targets. The boilerplate Runs per Wicket (RpW) for the accumulated first-innings array (limited amid 10 and 40) is assorted by 10, 11 or 12 to actuate the target.

Differing abacus factors are acclimated so that capricious RpW ethics are advised differently. At an RpW of 13, the aggregation should aim for commodity more, in this case, 20%. At 38, they can, at best, aim for the abounding innings score.

Freak pitches, which led to real-life scorelines of 75/123/475 or 523/598/173, should be ignored.

Fourth-innings targets

After the complexities of the third-innings targets, this is a allotment of block aback the targets are set in bean and could ambit from 1 to 836.

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Determination of acceptable chances

The acceptable affairs are consistently bent for the batting aggregation aback the targets are accessible alone for the batting team. In this article, the WinIndex ethics affect to the ultimate acceptable team. Aback anniversary acceptable aggregation has a batting and bowling innings, the adapted transformation is done for the bowling innings.

The acceptable affairs are bent ten times during anniversary of the third and fourth innings – at the alpha of the innings and the at the abatement of anniversary wicket – arch to a best of 20 values.

Let me ascertain the condoning Tests. I will accede all absolute Tests that went into the fourth innings, including India v West Indies in Bridgetown 1982-83, which had a distinct no-ball in the fourth innings. As of October 2017, at the achievement of the series-clinching win for Sri Lanka over Pakistan, 1132 Tests qualify. Incidentally, this aftermost Test threatened to advance itself into austere application until Sarfraz Ahmed absitively to ambit from the rough. The South Africa v England Test in Centurion in 1999-00 and the England v Pakistan Test at The Oval in 2006 are not considered, for the accessible affidavit of apish declarations and forfeit.

Using the WinIndex arrangement beyond the 20 barometer points, I fabricated a shortlist of about 25 Tests. Afresh I scrutinised anniversary bout and completed the final alternative of 13. I accept approved to board all eras of Test candid and represent best of the top teams. There is a affable abruptness at the end. In general, I looked for Tests that accept a WinIndex arrangement of at atomic 3-17. This was to ensure that alone matches in which the acceptable teams came aback from atrocious situations are considered. There are some exceptions, which are explained later.

In the history of Test candid there is aloof one Test with a WinIndex arrangement of 0-20: that agency that the acceptable aggregation had no adventitious from the alpha of the third innings through the 19 fall-of-wicket instances. This was aback unfancied South Africa blanket a arresting one-wicket over England in Johannesburg in 1905-06. Needless to say, this was an automated access into the final selection.

There are six Tests with patterns of 1-19, and three of them were selected. Additionally slotting in was the acclaimed Neil Harvey-inspired win in Durban in 1949-50, which had a arrangement of 1-15.

Three Tests were called alfresco these set criteria. The one-run win by West Indies over Australia in Adelaide in 1992-93 could not be denied its place. It was anapestic amends that the WinIndex blueprint was a admirable 10-10.

I did some brooding while selecting a Test for India. I am able in my acceptance that the greatest Indian come-from-behind win was neither Kolkata 2001 nor The Oval 1971, but Melbourne 1981. Kolkata was 13-5 in India’s favour (Australia advanced alone at the beginning, and till the abatement of the aboriginal four wickets of India’s additional innings). The Oval was 14-3 in India’s favour. Melbourne was 4-16 and gets in on merit.

Another alternative that adapted some acumen was in selecting a Sri Lankan win from the abyss. The archetypal in Galle in 2015 featuring brilliant performances from Dinesh Chandimal and Rangana Herath got the bend over the hunt of 326 at the SSC in 1998 that was led by Aravinda de Silva. The Galle bout clocks in at 4-16 while the SSC win was at 1-15. The final angry of the scales actuality was the backbone of the Indian team.

These, then, are the final selections, presented chronologically. The block wins are in blooming graphs and the arresting ones in blue. The WinIndex allotment is apparent on the Y-Axis and the Innings-Wicket on the X-Axis. The ethics run from 5 to 95.

1. Australia v England in Sydney, 1894-95England won by ten runs

That was the first-ever Test win afterwards a follow-on. England’s abstract ambition as they batted in the third innings was 511(250 261). Albert Ward’s hundred was accurate by a cardinal of advantageous innings, but at no date did England attending acceptable to ability the target. The final ambition for Australia was 176, somewhat beneath par. They were benumbed at 130 for 2, and the WinIndex ethics remained beneath 40 for the aboriginal bisected of the innings. Afresh came a alarming collapse, from 158 for 5 to 162 for 9. Alone at the abatement of the ninth wicket did England coin ahead: their alone WinIndex amount beyond 50. The WinIndex administration was 1-19.

2. England v Australia at The Oval, 1902England won by one wicket

Australia batted calmly for a first-innings account of 324. Hugh Trumble afresh absolved the able English agency for 183. The advance of 141 meant that Australia’s abstract third-innings ambition was 163 (12*25.3-141). They could alone account 121, yet the final ambition of 263 was absolutely stiff, seeing how England had floundered adjoin Trumble and Jack Saunders, who now ripped through the top adjustment to abate Australia to 48 for 5. That is aback the “Croucher”, Gilbert Jessop, absolved in to comedy an innings fit to be ranked amid the best block innings ever. He added over a hundred with Stanley Jackson and 30 with George Hirst and was absolved at 187 for 7. The bout was in the balance, but acutely branch Australia’s way. The ninth wicket fell at 248, and who will anytime apperceive whether Wilfred Rhodes told Hirst “Let’s get’ em in singles” or “Let us accept a bash” or “Give ’em boogers, hell” or whatever else. They got those 15 runs and England won a memorable Test, adjoin all odds.

3. South Africa v England in Johannesburg, 1905-06South Africa won by one wicket

This is the alone Test bout in which the acceptable aggregation did not accept a distinct WinIndex amount beyond 50: in added words, the alone 0-20 in the history of Test cricket. A somewhat depleted English aggregation was absolved for 184 by a raw South African side. South Africa’s affliction was appear aback they did not alike ability bisected that. The two low array and the big advance meant that the abstract third-innings ambition was aloof 72 (12*13.75-93), but England denticulate an absorbing 190. Block 284, the Windex amount for South Africa was 25% aback they angled to 105 for 6 and Dave Nourse played one of history’s abundant match-winning innings, abacus over 100 with Gordon White. At 226 for 7, the WinIndex was 49%. Afresh South Africa absent two quick wickets and were disturbing at 239 for 9, but Nourse calmly added the adapted 48 runs with Percy Sherwell and won the match.

4. South Africa v Australia in Durban, 1949-50Australia won by bristles wickets

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If I anytime actualize a account of the bristles best Tests of all time, the Durban archetypal of 1950 would acquisition a place. Eric Rowan anchored a potentially match-winning absolute of 311 adjoin a almighty Australian bowling attack. Australia floundered adjoin the circuit diabolism of Hugh Tayfield and were absolved for 75, acceptance a advance of 236. The fourth-innings ambition for Australia, 232 (12*19.3), was already independent in the lead, and the absolute innings ambition was a abstract one (48). This meant that alike admitting South Africa were absolved for 99, Australia was durably ashore at WinIndex ethics either ancillary of 30% for the absolute third innings. The ambition of 336 acquainted like a mirage, and as they slipped to 59 for 3 and 95 for 4, the WinIndex amount biconcave beneath 30. Afresh Neil Harvey fabricated 151 not out, a masterpiece fit to be ranked with the 153 not out about 50 years afterwards by that added affected left-hander, Brian Lara. Harvey added over a hundred with Sam Loxton, and afresh Colin McCool provided complete abutment as Australia romped home to a absolutely abrupt win. The WinIndex account was 1-15.

5. Australia v India in Melbourne, 1980-81India won by 59 runs

I accept already bidding my angle on this win. India had a poor alpha but recovered through a accomplished 114 by Gundappa Viswanath. However, 237 was a poor acknowledgment on the aboriginal day of a Test and Allan Border’s abstinent 124, assisted by abutment from Greg Chappell, Doug Walters and Rod Marsh took Australia to a first-innings advance of 182. India’s abstract ambition for the third innings was 542 (11*32.8 182). There were advantageous contributions from the top bristles but the aftermost bristles wickets fell for alone 64 runs. India’s acceptable affairs at the alpha of the fourth innings were not alike 30%: understandable, with Australia’s ambition a beggarly 143. But Australia absent quick wickets. The aboriginal two went to Karsan Ghavri, who bowled aloof about slow-medium. Dilip Doshi chipped in with two and Kapil Dev able off the rest. I would not accept been afraid if the allowance adjoin an India win afore the Australian innings were 500-1 (remember that Headingley 1981 was still six months away). The aftermost four WinIndex ethics were aloft 50 and the final account was 4-16. I am abutting in my acceptance that this is the greatest Indian Test win ever.

6. England v Australia at Headingley, 1981England won by 18 runs

This is a bout we commonly run out of adjectives to describe. I accept accounting about it abounding times but never do a copy-and-paste aback I consistently try to get a new perspective. Australia acquaint a appalling absolute of 401, fabricated at a banal pace. The Australian clip leash was adverse and absolved England for 174, a arrears of 227. Today, there would accept been no follow-on, but the times were altered and England were asked to bat again. The aforementioned adventure afresh itself and England were staring at an innings defeat at 135 for 7. The colossus, Ian Botham, was at the bulge and Graham Dilley came in. They added 117 runs and abhorred an innings defeat. Chris Old had a astute arch on his amateur and helped Botham add accession 67. Bob Willis helped Botham add accession 37. During the absolute third innings, the ambition of 477 (250 227) was way out of ability and the WinIndex remained durably south of 30%. What followed was stirring. Willis produced arguably the best bowling achievement anytime by an English fast bowler, and absolved Australia for 111. At 75 for 8, England had the edge, as additionally at 110 for 9. The Botham and Willis appearance concluded with the WinIndex account at 2-18.

7. Sri Lanka v Australia at the SSC, 1992Australia won by 16 runs

Batting first, crumbling to 124 for 7, convalescent to 256, but still acceptance a advance of about 300 runs, Australia’s plight at the SSC in 1992 was miserable. Granted, these were the pre-Muralitharan days, but Sri Lanka boasted a acceptable all-round bowling advance at home. Australia had a abstract third-innings ambition of 491 (200 291). No one denticulate a hundred, but afresh no one denticulate beneath 10, and they congenital up to 471. The abiding batting is reflected by the WinIndex band aerial about the 40 mark for best of the Australian innings. However, the final ambition of 181 was beneath par, because the aerial totals in the match. Aback Sri Lanka were 132 for 3, a win was endemic for the taking. Aravinda de Silva, with a 32-ball-37 beneath his belt, went for an aggressive hit and Border completed a arresting abuttals catch. That was it. Greg Matthews and Shane Warne ran through the abutting six batsmen for the accession of alone 32 runs. Australia went on to complete one of their best acceptable wins and the fable of Warne was born. Alone at 156 for 9 did Australia go accomplished a WinIndex amount of 50 and it was 1-19 at the end.

8. New Zealand v Pakistan in Hamilton, 1992-93Pakistan won by 33 runs

New Zealand has consistently been a boxy cricketing country to visit. On the 1992-93 tour, Pakistan had the bigger ancillary on paper, abnormally because Martin Crowe was not available. But they started awfully, accident three wickets for 12, and recovered partially to ability 216, through a masterclass of 92 by Javed Miandad. In response, Mark Greatbatch played a accumulation innings of 133 and helped New Zealand to a advance of 48. Pakistan’s abstract ambition for the third innings was 336 (12*24 48). They about accomplished the center mark, and there was a distinct atom in the anatomy of Inzamam-ul-Haq’s 75. Through best of the innings, the WinIndex ethics for Pakistan remained about the 30 mark. The fourth-innings ambition of 127 was way beneath par. However, Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis, while not about seeing eye to eye off the field, were arguably the best adverse bowling brace in Test history. Wasim bowled banausic for 22 overs and Waqar 14, and calm they absolved New Zealand for 93. Alone at the abatement of the eighth wicket, at 88, did the course absolutely about-face for Pakistan, so it was 2-18 in the WinIndex stakes.

9. Australia v West Indies in Adelaide, 1992-93West Indies* won by one run

A few canicule afterwards the abstruseness at the SSC, Australia and West Indies played a arresting Test in Adelaide: aloof one run abroad from actuality the absolute Test match. West Indies were sitting calmly at 129 for 2, but could not alike bifold that score, finishing on 252, a poor acknowledgment for Adelaide. Curtly Ambrose was arresting and ripped through the able Australian batting, earning a advance of 39 with his 6 for 74. The abstract third-innings ambition for West Indies was 240 (12*23.2-39). They bankrupt for aloof 146, about bisected of those runs denticulate by Richie Richardson. The WinIndex ethics confused either ancillary of 50 through this innings. The ambition of 186 was a fair one. Australia’s hunt was a mix of the abhorrent and sublime: 16 for 2, 64 for 4 and 74 for 7 acquaint the story. Aggregate seemed over at 102 for 8. Tim May and a accommodating Warne added a few runs but the ninth wicket fell at 144. May, batting beautifully, had taken the account to 184 aback Craig McDermott fell. The ultimate achievement allowance of a distinct run was best appropriate. Additionally adapted is the WinIndex tally: a absolute 10-10.

10. Australia v South Africa in Sydney, 1993-94South Africa won by bristles runs

If you ask me which is the greatest brace of years in Test cricket, I will anon say 1992 to 1994. Bristles of my 13 selections are from this period. The New Year Test at the SCG brought affliction to the visiting South Africans on the aperture day. Warne was about unplayable and his booty of seven wickets meant that South Africa denticulate aloof 169. In response, Australia anchored a potentially match-winning advance of 123. The abstract ambition for South Africa in the third innings was 399 (12*22.7 123). They accomplished 239, acknowledgment to a adventurous 76 by Jonty Rhodes. The blueprint reveals the WinIndex ethics clashing about the 30 mark. The ambition of 117 foretold an accessible win for Australia’s able batting line-up, but Fanie de Villiers had added ideas. He captured the aboriginal four wickets and afresh Allan Donald chipped in. Then, aback McDermott seemed to be demography Australia to a memorable win, de Villiers came and best up the aftermost wicket to leave South Africa winners by bristles runs. Alone at the abatement of the eighth wicket did South Africa attending like winning, which is reflected in the WinIndex account of 1-19.

11. Pakistan v Australia in Karachi, 1994-95Pakistan won by one wicket

This is the fifth Test from our aureate 26-month period. Solid middle-order batting helped Australia to a advantageous 337 in the aboriginal innings. Their pace-spin aggregate afresh accumulated to defended a advance of 81. Australia’s abstract ambition for the third innings was 274 (12*29.7-81). At 171 for 2, they were able-bodied on their way to an arty total, mainly through David Boon’s hundred. Afresh came a massive collapse, engineered by Wasim and Waqar, and Australia bankrupt for 232, abrogation Pakistan 314 to get in the aftermost innings. The hunt was able-bodied placed at 148 for 2, afresh floundering at 184 for 7, 236 for 8 and 258 for 9. Aggregate seemed absent for Pakistan aback Mushtaq Ahmed absolved in to accompany Inzamam. Slowly but absolutely the brace denticulate the 57 runs to win an amazing bout by a distinct wicket, Mushtaq’s advancing innings of 20 in 30 assurance conceivably as amenable for the win as Inzamam’s effort. The final WinIndex blueprint was 3-17.

12. Australia v Pakistan in Hobart, 1999-2000Australia won by four wickets

Another amazing Test bout featuring Australia. This one in from the aboriginal stages of their 16-Test acceptable streak. This is additionally the Test that about agitated the applecart. The two aboriginal innings were similar: both beneath par, and Australia concluded with a attenuate advance of 24. Pakistan’s abstract third-innings ambition was 304 (12*23.4 24). They exceeded it comfortably, with 392, through Inzamam’s hundred and fifties from Saeed Anwar and Ijaz Ahmed. The ambition of 369 and the accident of aboriginal wickets worsened the bearings for Australia. At 126 for 5, aggregate seemed lost. Australia’s WinIndex amount biconcave beneath 30. Justin Langer was abutting by Adam Gilchrist, arena his additional Test. They produced an amazing affiliation of 238 and took Australia to aural a few runs of the target. The Australian WinIndex amount exceeded 50 for the additional time at the abatement of the sixth wicket. A arresting block win.

13. Sri Lanka v India in Galle, 2015Sri Lanka won by 63 runs

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This is the alone Test from the accepted millennium. Sri Lanka did not alike ability 200 on the aboriginal day aback they could not appreciate R Ashwin’s amazing mix of deliveries. Centuries from Shikhar Dhawan and Virat Kohli meant that India accomplished with a huge lead. Sri Lanka’s abstract ambition for the third innings was a massive 526 (12*27.9 192). That looked a aqueduct dream aback they angled to 5 for 3. Kumar Sangakkara and Angelo Mathews retrieved the bearings partly but at 95 for 5, the abysm beckoned. Dinesh Chandimal afresh played an innings fit to be remembered alongside Sanath Jayasuriya’s 253, Mahela Jayawardene’s 180 and Kusal Mendis’ 176. His run-a-ball 162 was a complete bolt from the blue. He added admired runs with Lahiru Thirimanne and Jehan Mubarak, and the final absolute of 367 meant that India would accept to hunt 176. The drive was with Sri Lanka and Rangana Herath was around unplayable. India bankrupt for 112, abrogation Sri Lanka winners by 63 runs and Herath with abstracts of 7 for 48. Alone appear the end of the innings did Sri Lanka accretion the ascendancy, and this resulted in a WinIndex administration of 4-16.

Australia v West Indies in Brisbane, 1960-61Match tied

And finally, an added aloft the baker’s dozen, a accolade to that best abstract and arresting of Tests: the aboriginal angry Test. The aboriginal two innings were in balance of 450 and West Indies started the third innings in arrears by 52. Their abstract ambition was 452. They were abaft adapted through the innings and set Australia a final ambition of aloof 233. Alone at 49 for 4, 57 for 5 and 92 for 6 in the final innings did West Indies coin ahead. They fell aback afresh because of the huge seventh-wicket affiliation amid Alan Davidson and Richie Benaud. Australia were afresh durably in the saddle until the abatement of the tenth wicket. The final WinIndex administration was 3-17, a agitating improvement aftereffect for West Indies.

The added matches in the shortlist are briefly abundant below, in about-face archival order.

India v England, Chennai, 2008-09. A acknowledged last-day hunt in Chennai afterwards Kevin Pietersen’s arduous declaration. The almost accessible win accepted a barrier block in the final selection.

India v Australia, Mumbai, 2004-05. A asleep elastic played on an acknowledgment of a pitch. A abutting but thoroughly unsatisfactory Test.

West Indies v Australia, Antigua, 2003. Dead-heat aboriginal innings, followed by West Indies commutual the better hunt of all time.

Sri Lanka v South Africa, Kandy, 2000. South Africa’s acknowledged defence of 177 through unfancied bowlers like Lance Klusener and Nicky Boje.

West Indies v Australia, Barbados, 1998-99. Arguably the block innings to exhausted all others, Lara’s 153 not out demography West Indies to a one-wicket win. However, the WinIndex calculation was 10-10.

Sri Lanka v Zimbawe, SSC, 1997-98. Sri Lanka hunt bottomward a huge ambition through a arresting de Silva hundred. A 1-19 Test.

England v Australia, The Oval, 1997. Phil Tufnell and Andy Caddick avert a paltry ambition of 124 adjoin a able Australian batting line-up.

New Zealand v Pakistan, Christchurch, 1994-95. A boxy hunt masterminded by hundreds from Bryan Young and Shane Thomson.

England v Australia, Manchester, 1961. A circuit masterclass by Benaud, who acclimated the asperous to abolish England for 201 afterwards they were 150 for 2.

England v Pakistan, The Oval, 1954. A arresting bout achievement of 12 for 99 by Fazal Mahmood demography Pakistan to a 24-run win in a low-scoring Test. England had Hutton, May, Simpson, Compton, Graveney, Tyson and Statham in their ranks.

Australia v England, Manchester, 1902. Trumble and Saunders arresting 124 with three runs to spare.

In accession to the bristles Tests amid August 1992 and September 1994 in the final selection, there is a sixth from that aeon in the shortlist. Further, there is one added Test from the 1990s in the final alternative and three added in the shortlist. The 1990s were absolutely the aureate decade of Test cricket.

*The aftereffect was tweaked to announce that it was West Indies and not Australia who won the Adelaide Test by one run

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